HR Guide to Scenario Planning

Few organizations follow structured and disciplined scenario planning.
Barriers prevent organizations from conducting structured scenario planning, such as the practice’s complexity and required investment, lack of expertise, focus on risks over opportunities, perceived lack of value, and workload and capacity issues.
Confusion remains around how scenario planning is integrated into the strategic planning process and how it relates to other strategic methodologies, including business continuity planning and contingency planning.

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Our Advice

Critical Insight

Scenario planning goes beyond risk mitigation and preparing for worst-case scenarios. Proactively identifying environmental trends, developing scenarios, and preparing next steps enables organizations to capitalize on potential opportunities while minimizing risks in an uncertain future.

Impact and Result

Improved ability to proactively identify internal and external trends, develop scenarios, capitalize on opportunities, and identify risks.
Enhanced resilience, equipping organizations to compete and avoid competitive disruption.
Greater organizational collaboration and agility by bringing together leaders and other key players to align strategic thinking and develop flexible action plans for future scenarios.

HR Guide to Scenario Planning Research & Tools

1. Set the objective

Engage key players, identify the factors prompting a need for scenario planning, and determine the scope.

2. Scan the environment

Conduct an environmental scan and prioritize key elements for scenario planning.

3. Develop scenarios

Develop scenarios using the spectrum approach and identify leading indicators.

4. Evaluate initiatives and prepare action plans

Prepare action plans for each scenario, plan to continuously monitor and iterate, and embed scenario planning into daily operations.

About McLean & Company

McLean & Company is an HR research and advisory firm providing practical solutions to human resources challenges via executable research, tools, diagnostics, and advisory services that have a clear and measurable impact on your business.

What Is a Blueprint?

A blueprint is designed to be a roadmap, containing a methodology and the tools and templates you need to solve your HR problems.

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Guided Implementation 1: Set the objective for scenario planning

Call 1: Review the critical success factors for scenario planning and identify key players to engage in scenario planning.
Call 2: Identify the factors prompting a need for scenario planning, determine the scope, and craft a framing question.

Guided Implementation 2: Scan the environment

Call 1: Discuss the various types of analyses used to identify key elements in the organization’s environment that influence the factors in scope for scenario planning.
Call 2: Review and prioritize key elements uncovered in the environmental scan.

Guided Implementation 3: Develop scenarios

Call 1: Define the spectrum for scenario building and prepare to develop scenarios.
Call 2: Discuss scenario narratives and identify leading indicators.

Guided Implementation 4: 4. Evaluate initiatives and prepare action plans

Call 1: Prepare action plans for each scenario.
Call 2: Plan to continuously monitor and adjust and discuss how to embed scenario planning into daily operations.

Contributors

Peter Beaumont, Leadership Advisor, Fractional COO, Beaumont Leadership Coaching
Shawn Gibson, CHRO, Info-Tech Research Group
David Jonker, Vice President, SAP Insights Research Center, SAP
Maggie Kent, Associate Foresight Strategist, FSi Strategy
Art Kleiner, Principal and Co-Leader in AI Advisory Services, Kleiner Powell International
Carol Ann Malinowski, Advisor and Consultant
Linda Ruhland, Founder, Success Authorities
Two anonymous contributors